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Final Four picks, odds: UConn, San Diego State favored to advance to national title game

See odds, expert picks and preview for the two national semifinals in the men's NCAA Tournament. This is the first time in history that the NCAA Tournament has been without a top-three seed, but there is a clear favorite to win the national title. UConn is favored by several points against the Hurricanes, and San Diego State is favored against Florida Atlantic in the first semifinal. Both teams are making their Final Four debuts, with four rotation players left over from the 2019-20 Aztecs team that finished 30-2 and ranked sixth in the country. Florida Atlantic is the Cinderella of this dance, with recent victories over fourth-seeded Tennessee and Kansas State in the Elite Eight showcasing its balance and depth.

Final Four picks, odds: UConn, San Diego State favored to advance to national title game

Published : 12 months ago by Rob Schaefer in Sports

This is the first men’s Final Four to have no top-3 seeds, but there is a clear favorite to win the national title. UConn, the best remaining seed as a No. 4, is a big favorite to beat Miami in the second national semifinal on Saturday and is a minus odds favorite to cut down the nets in Houston.

UConn is favored by several points against the Hurricanes, which are making the first Final Four appearance in program history. The Huskies have been dominant in every game so far and have a chance to become the fifth men’s team in the last 40 years to win every game in the NCAA Tournament by double digits (2018 Villanova, 2009 North Carolina, 2001 Duke, 2000 Michigan State).

San Diego State is favored against Florida Atlantic in the first semifinal, but it is a very close spread. Both of those teams are also making their Final Four debuts.

Here’s a look at the odds and matchups, with picks from our staff, for Saturday’s two national semifinals from NRG Stadium. The odds update live and are from BetMGM.

No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 9 Florida Atlantic

This side of the Final Four features two fresh faces. Both San Diego State and Florida Atlantic are making the first national semifinal appearance in program history, with the Aztecs entering as slight favorites for Saturday night’s matchup.

San Diego State has made the NCAA Tournament in four of five possible seasons (no tournament in 2020) under Brian Dutcher’s watch, winning at least 21 games each year. But on the heels of a 31-6 season and Mountain West titles (regular season and tournament), the Aztecs broke through this time around, beginning with the program’s first Round of 64 win since 2015 and culminating with gritty comebacks over top overall seed Alabama and sixth-seeded Creighton.

Obviously, it all starts at the defensive end for San Diego State, which ranks fourth in the country in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric. This is a bruising and physical team that, after trailing for much of the first half against Creighton, held the Bluejays to 23 points (on 28% shooting) in the final 20 minutes of regulation en route to a 57-56 victory.

But make no mistake: the Aztecs’ run has also featured big-time shot-making from contributors like Darrion Trammell, who had 21 points against Alabama and the game-winning free throw against Creighton, and Lamont Butler, who led all scorers with 18 against Creighton. This is also an experienced group, with four rotation players (Keshad Johnson, Nathan Mensah, Adam Seiko and Aguek Arop) left over from the 2019-20 Aztecs team that finished 30-2 and ranked sixth in the country. That team was unable to test its mettle in the NCAA Tournament because the season was shortened by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Florida Atlantic, meanwhile, is the Cinderella of this dance — and the signs were there. The Owls rank top-30 in both offensive and defensive efficiency and are 35-3 on the season, two wins (and counting) ahead of the eliminated Houston Cougars for the most in the nation.

Recent victories over fourth-seeded Tennessee in the Sweet 16 and Kansas State in the Elite Eight showcased Florida Atlantic’s balance and depth. Against the Volunteers, the Owls held Tennessee to 55 points on 33.3% shooting; against Kansas State, they quelled one of the stories of the tournament by placing four starters in double-figures — Johnell Davis, Alijah Martin, Bryan Greenlee and Vladislav Goldin — draining nine 3-pointers as a team and receiving four clutch free throws from Michael Forrest in the closing seconds.

Yes, it has been quite the ascent for Dusty May’s squad after being voted fifth in the Conference USA preseason poll. Their march into uncharted territory continues, as this is only the program’s second NCAA Tournament appearance and its first time advancing beyond the first round.

Nobody saw a trip to the national title game coming down to this matchup. In fact, this is the first ever NCAA Tournament without a top-three seed represented in the Final Four. But it should be an exciting one — with plenty of stakes — all the same.

No. 4 UConn vs. No. 5 Miami

In March 2019, UConn completed an under-.500 season in Dan Hurley’s first campaign as head coach. Four years later, the Huskies are headed to the sixth Final Four in program history — and, as the top remaining seed in the tournament, are solidly favored for Saturday’s matchup against the fifth-seeded Miami Hurricanes.

This season has been quite the ride in Storrs. First, a 14-0 start that saw UConn rise as high as No. 2 in the country. Then, a 2-6 stretch to kick off the calendar year that raised questions about the sustainability of the early-season success.

But since a loss to Xavier on Jan. 31, the Huskies have won 13 of 15 and now look every bit the part of a team currently ranked first in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin (third in offense, 11th in defense). They have won their four NCAA Tournament games by an average of 22.5 points — culminating in an 82-54 drubbing of Gonzaga in the Elite Eight. The Huskies’ top-end talent has risen to the occasion. Jordan Hawkins won Most Outstanding Player honors for the West Region by averaging 17.3 points and shooting better than 50 percent from 3-point range, Adam Sanogo (20.8 ppg, 9.8 rpg) has been a boon on the interior and Andre Jackson has blossomed as a do-it-all two-way wing.

Miami, however, is an explosive and experienced group that has been tested by adversity throughout this season and tournament — and passed every time. The latest was a 13-point second-half comeback against Texas — at the time the tournament’s top remaining seed — on Sunday to wash away the taste of last year’s Elite Eight defeat and clinch the school’s first Final Four berth.

That victory featured all the ingredients that have carried the ACC co-champion Hurricanes this far. The fifth-ranked offense in the country dropped 88 points (51 in the second half and 37 in the final 12:35) against a stellar Longhorns defense. Veteran guards Jordan Miller (with 27 points on perfect 7-for-7 field goal and 13-for-13 free throw shooting), Isaiah Wong (12 second-half points) and Nijel Pack (15 points) led the charge while Norchad Omier anchored the frontcourt and Wooga Poplar scored in double-figures for the second consecutive game.

Looking ahead, the Hurricanes’ work is certainly cut out for them. The physically imposing Huskies are an elite offensive rebounding team, and have combined stifling defense, sharp outside shooting and a devastating transition attack to author tournament blowout after tournament blowout. Omier, one of the nation’s best rebounders, and Miami’s trio of high-powered scoring guards will be key to keeping up with Connecticut.

No team has been able to do that so far, especially outside of the Big East, where the Huskies remain undefeated for the season. But in a tournament full of surprises, anything is possible, especially for a group as resilient as these Hurricanes.

Projections to win Final Four and Championship


Topics: California, San Diego

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